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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Long on Backwardation & Squeeze | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on WTI Crude (CL=F) with a target move toward the 92–93 zone, predicated on a structurally tight prompt market, aggressive inventory drawdowns, and a technical setup that favors a rebound from oversold levels. The primary catalyst is the steep backwardation in the front-month curve, which signals immediate physical tightness and supports a rally as the market rolls into the December contract. While the broader trend remains under pressure from macro headwinds, the combination of a 4.2% net-long crowding percentile and a 12.8% annualized roll yield provides a robust foundation for a mean-reversion long. Invalidation occurs if price breaches the 86.05 support level, which would negate the technical setup and suggest a deeper correction. The current intraday snapshot shows early Asian buying support, reinforcing the view that the recent sell-off is exhausted and that buyers are stepping in at key support levels.