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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

CN=F (CN=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Oversold Support | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on CN=F (CN=F) as the commodity trades within a structurally supportive 20-day channel despite recent consolidation. The primary thesis rests on three pillars: the asset is testing a key technical support zone aligned with the lower bound of its 20-day range, the 5D and 20D declines have compressed volatility to levels that historically precede mean-reversion rallies, and the current pricing fails to account for the tightening supply-demand fundamentals implied by the broader energy complex. Invalidation occurs if the settle decisively breaks below 13,751, the 20-day low and 52-week low, which would signal a breakdown of the current accumulation structure. While the current week remains open, the last completed weekly bar closed below the 13,848 level, yet the immediate technical setup favors a bounce from the 13,776-13,751 support cluster. We advise traders to look for long entries on dips near these levels, targeting a retest of the 13,895 pivot and the 20-day upper channel boundary.