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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

ES=F (ES=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Breakout Above 7851 | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on ES=F, targeting a sustained move above the 7851 pivot as momentum builds on the back of strong technical positioning and supportive macro flows. The S&P 500 futures have reclaimed the 20-day moving average, trading near the upper end of their 20-day range with a 5-day gain of +1.78% and a 20-day gain of +2.73%. While the current week remains unfinished, the prior session's settle of 7852.75 confirms a break above the key resistance zone, supported by a 20-day channel that has held since early September. Invalidation would require a decisive close below the 7817.5 support level, which would negate the bullish structure. The market is currently pricing in a resilient economic backdrop, with implied volatility remaining subdued relative to historical norms, suggesting limited near-term tail risk. We see further upside potential as the index tests the 7886.25 resistance and potentially the 7919.75 level, provided volume and positioning remain constructive. The current setup favors long exposure with tight risk management around the pivot.