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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Supply Tightness | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on Copper (HG=F) for the near term, anchored by a structural supply squeeze and resilient demand signals. The primary catalyst is the drawdown in LME and SHFE inventories, which signals immediate physical tightness despite a modest 5D gain. While technicals show the price consolidating within a 20-day channel, the underlying positioning remains supportive of higher prices, with managed money net longs at a 68.51 percentile. Our invalidation level sits at a break below the 6.6053 support zone, which would negate the immediate bullish thesis. The current setup favors long exposure with a focus on the December contract (HGZ26), targeting a retest of the 20-day resistance at 6.9285 if the 6.6432 pivot holds. Seasonal tailwinds and a contango structure further support the carry for long positions, though volatility remains elevated.