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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

OJ=F Deep Dive | Bullish Rebound from Oversold | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on OJ=F (orange juice futures) following a sharp oversold bounce, with a target move toward the 20-day resistance band. The primary catalyst is a technical rebound from extreme short-term weakness, supported by a potential seasonal demand uptick and a stabilizing dollar backdrop. Our call is invalidated if price reclaims the 142.77 support level with sustained selling pressure, which would signal a deeper correction. The current setup suggests a mean-reversion trade where the market has overreacted to recent supply concerns, creating a favorable risk-reward for long positions targeting the 150.18 resistance. We advise caution around the upcoming FOMC speaker event, but the technical structure favors a rally from these levels. The 20-day channel provides a clear path for upside, with the lower band acting as a dynamic support zone. We expect the market to test the 150.18 level within the next week, contingent on no major negative supply shocks.