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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Palladium (PA=F) Deep Dive | Bearish — 20-day floor gives way, 1115 is the line | 2026-10-08

Palladium is a SHORT: the prior-session settle of 1127 (2026-10-07) broke below the prior 20-day low at 1157.5, closing at the 5th percentile of the 20-day range and just 1.1% above the 52-week low of 1115, and the invalidation is a settle back above the 20-day low at 1157.5. Three reasons: (1) the tape is in a persistent downtrend — 5D -7.04% and 20D -18.39% on settles, with the last completed weekly bar (2026-09-28–2026-10-02) closing at 1172.2, -8.13% w/w, and the unfinished current week last at 1127, -3.86%; (2) the move is orderly rather than capitulative, with ATR14 at 43.61 (3.87% of price) and RV20 at 33.4%, so there is no volatility spike that typically marks a washout low; (3) the macro backdrop is hostile — DXY at 102.23 (+0.4%) and US 10-year yield at 5.28% raise the carry cost of holding a deficit-metal long with no yield. The 2026-10-07 bar carries a roll flag, so the -4.04% single-day drop should be read as a contract roll rather than fresh fundamental information; the structural break below 1157.5 stands regardless. A settle above 1157.5 invalidates the short; the first downside reference is the 52-week low at 1115, then the S2 pivot at 1078.33.