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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

XAU=F (XAU=F) Deep Dive | Long on Oversold Bounce | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on XAU=F (XAU=F) for a technical rebound, targeting a retest of the 20-day channel resistance near 4200. The primary catalyst is the current price action trading at a significant discount to its 20-day moving average, creating a high-probability mean-reversion setup. While the macro backdrop remains supportive of gold as a store of value, the immediate trade is driven by technical exhaustion on the downside and a lack of follow-through selling in early Asian trade. The invalidation level is a sustained break below the 4012 support zone, which would signal a deeper correction. Our analysis relies on the settled price of 4110.68 from the prior session, with the current intraday level at 4108.36 showing stability. We are not forecasting a new all-time high immediately, but rather a tactical long entry on the current oversold conditions.