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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

YM=F (YM=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Macro Support | 2026-10-08

We maintain a bullish bias on YM=F (YM=F) with a target toward the 20-day high, driven by resilient macro demand, technical support at key pivots, and positioning that favors upside. The primary invalidation level is a sustained break below the S1 pivot at 51137.33, which would signal a shift in market structure. Despite recent consolidation, the underlying fundamentals remain supportive, with industrial demand outpacing supply constraints. Technical indicators suggest a potential rebound from current levels, with the 20-day channel providing a clear framework for price action. The current market environment, characterized by stable interest rates and a moderately strong dollar, creates a favorable backdrop for equities. We expect the market to test resistance levels in the near term, with a break above the R1 pivot at 51810.33 potentially opening the path to higher targets. This outlook is contingent on the absence of significant negative catalysts, such as unexpected monetary policy shifts or geopolitical disruptions.