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データ基準日: 2026-10-07 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Rebound on Oversold Conditions | 2026-10-08

Our directional call on Wheat (ZW=F) is Bullish, targeting a rebound toward the 700–714 range as technical oversold conditions and seasonal tailwinds converge. The contract has corrected sharply over the past month, falling 5.8% over 20 days, yet remains within a defined 20-day channel with support near 670.83. Recent intraday strength in early Asian trade suggests a potential reversal from the 686.5 settlement, supported by a 20-day channel positioning at 21.6% and a 5D gain of 1.59%. While macro headwinds from a strong dollar and elevated yields persist, the fundamental supply-demand backdrop remains supportive, with inventory levels below historical averages and seasonal patterns favoring gains. We see a path to test resistance at 700.42 and potentially 714.33 if momentum builds. Invalidation occurs if price breaks below 670.83 with conviction, signaling a deeper correction. This view is grounded in quantitative technicals, seasonal tendencies, and a cautious assessment of positioning and cross-asset flows.