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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-22 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Crude Oil (INE.SC) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias: Strong Abroad, Weak Domestically, SC Premium Turns Negative | 2026-10-23

Directional conclusion: bearish. SC2612 [10-22 settlement] 702 yuan/barrel, down 13.74% over 20 days, at the 26.7th percentile of the 20-day range; in the international market, Brent [10-21 settlement] 108.82 USD, up 10.91% over 20 days, at the 81.3th percentile, [10-23 Asian early session] 112.8, with a significant divergence between international and Chinese market trends. On drivers, EIA crude oil inventories are 3.3% below the five-year average for the same period, gasoline 5.0% below, and distillates 9.0% below; U.S. refinery utilization is 93.4%, with tight international conditions supporting Brent; however, China's tax-adjusted implied premium has shifted from +0.6% five days ago to -5.27%, with SC moving from a premium to a discount versus the international market, weakening independently in China. On structure, [10-22] open interest in the main contract fell by 2,073 lots and notional open interest dropped by 1.49 billion yuan, indicating short covering rather than active buying; OVX at 55.64 is at the 58th percentile over one year, only modestly above RV20's 57.9%. Conditions for invalidation: SC2612 breaks above 729.13 (next session pivot R1) on a daily close and holds, or Brent loses 107.24 (next session pivot S1) in the Asian early session.