📅 2026-10-06 · Algo brief · 19:00 ET (prev day)

This report is provided by MacroTerms.com

Data as of: 2026-10-06 · Settlement: Exchange final daily settlement
Generated: 2026-10-06 07:00:24 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-06
Body, Best Trade and charts share the same settlement snapshot; intraday live prices are not part of conclusions

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-06: Gold Holds 4th Percentile, WTI Backwardation Narrows to 1.42

1) Gold settled 4156.8 (settle, -0.13%) at the 4th percentile of its 20D range with managed money net length -7,071 lots w/w into a 4.49% price fall; Asia trades 4168.1 (+0.27% vs settle) — the CFTC divergence and low range position still argue against a directional long; watch 4143.1 (20D low) on a settle basis. 2) WTI settled 89.43 (settle, -1.84%) with M1-M2 backwardation narrowing to 1.42 from 1.68 and the 3:2:1 crack at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y); Asia 89.25 (-0.2% vs settle) — buy-dips re

Data revision (2026-10-06 17:01 EDT): minor settlement revisions after publication; conclusions unchanged.

- Plus 9 minor revision(s) (≤0.5%, conclusions unchanged); see the revision details on the page

1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter

1. Gold settled 4156.8 (settle, -0.13%) at the 4th percentile of its 20D range, with managed money net length -7,071 lots w/w into a 4.49% price fall. The positioning divergence and the depressed range position still argue against a directional long, even as Asia trades 4168.1 (+0.27% vs settle). Watch 4143.1 (20D low) on a settle basis; a settle below 4120.2 (S2) would invalidate the neutral stance.

2. WTI settled 89.43 (settle, -1.84%) with M1-M2 backwardation narrowing to 1.42 from 1.68, while the 3:2:1 crack held at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y). Prompt tightness is easing but refining margins remain extreme, keeping the buy-dip structure intact; Asia is 89.25 (-0.2% vs settle). Watch 88.28 (S1) — a settle below it invalidates the bullish view.

3. Silver settled 61.3 (settle, +1.46%) at the 15th percentile of the 20D range, with SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d and COMEX registered -8,709 Moz d/d. The warrant build keeps the bearish case alive against a still-low range position; Asia is 61.42 (+0.19% vs settle). Watch 61.92 (R1) as resistance and 63.42 (R2) as the invalidation level.

2. Best Trade Today

Short COMEX白银 (SI=F) · entry 61.92 (limit) · stop 63.42 · target 59.45 · R:R 1:1.6 · horizon 1-5d · conviction 5/10

Thesis: Silver settled 61.3 at the 15th percentile of the 20D range with SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d and COMEX registered -8,709 Moz d/d, while the gold/silver ratio at 68.35 sits at a 14th percentile 5Y reading that still favours gold.
Invalidation: A settle above 63.42 (R2) invalidates the bearish view.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4156.8 (-0.13%) at the 4th percentile of the 20D range, managed money net length -7,071 lots w/w into a 4.49% price fall, GVZ 23.23 vs RV20 16.6% | key level: 4143.1 (20D low); resistance 4187 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 4120.2 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged — the CFTC divergence and the low range position still argue against a directional long.

Silver (SI) — Bearish | driver: settle 61.3 (+1.46%) at the 15th percentile of the 20D range, SHFE warrants +30,504 kg d/d, gold/silver ratio 68.35 at a 14th percentile 5Y reading that still favours gold | key level: 59.45 (S1); resistance 61.92 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 63.42 (R2) | vs last issue: unchanged.

WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 89.43 (-1.84%) with M1-M2 backwardation narrowing to 1.42 from 1.68 and the 3:2:1 crack at 64.65 (97th percentile 3Y) | key level: 90.02 (pivot); support 88.15 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 88.15 | vs last issue: changed from Bullish because the entry zone 90.5-91.1 was filled and the position is running; the backwardation narrowing to 1.42 is a mild negative but the crack at 64.65 keeps the buy-dip structure intact.

Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 100.22 (-1.99%) with WTI-Brent at -11.14 (4th percentile 1Y) and OPEC+ holding November output steady | key level: 100.28 (pivot); support 100.16 (S1) | invalidation: settle below 100.16 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Nat Gas (NG) — Bearish | driver: settle 3.07 (+1.02%) with M1-M2 contango narrowing to -0.293 from -0.306 and managed money net -132,799 lots (-67,252 w/w) | key level: 3.05 (pivot); resistance 3.1 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 3.1 | vs last issue: unchanged.

Copper (HG) — Neutral | driver: settle 6.64 (+1.4%) at the 51st percentile of the 20D range, COMEX registered 471,400 short ton d/d 0, LME warehouse_stock 248,650 MT d/d +575 | key level: 6.62 (pivot); resistance 6.68 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 6.58 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.

Soybeans (ZS) — Bearish | driver: settle 1280.8 (+0.2%) at the 12th percentile of the 20D range, M1-M2 contango widening to -16.5 from -16.25 | key level: 1270.6 (S1); resistance 1294.1 (R1) | invalidation: settle above 1294.1 | vs last issue: unchanged.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 10-05	1D (settle)	5D (settle)	Asia 10-06 07:00 BJT	vs settle
Gold	4156.8	-0.13%	-0.28%	4168.1	+0.27%
Silver	61.3	+1.46%	-0.68%	61.42	+0.19%
WTI Crude	89.43	-1.84%	-3.42%	89.25	-0.20%
Brent Crude	100.22	-1.99%	+2.44%	100.24	+0.02%
Natural Gas	3.07	+1.02%	-1.29%	3.08	+0.42%
Copper	6.64	+1.40%	+0.11%	6.64	+0.00%
Soybeans	1280.8	+0.20%	-0.58%	n/a	n/a
Corn	497.25	-0.10%	-4.92%	n/a	n/a
Wheat	692.25	+1.35%	+0.51%	n/a	n/a

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-05 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = last trade before 08:00 Beijing time, not a settlement; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._

Asia is trading marginally higher across the metals complex relative to settle: gold at 4168.1 (+0.27% vs settle), silver at 61.42 (+0.19% vs settle), and copper flat at 6.64 (+0% vs settle). Crude is softer, with WTI at 89.25 (-0.2% vs settle) and Brent at 100.24 (+0.02% vs settle), while natural gas is at 3.08 (+0.42% vs settle). The moves are small relative to ATR and do not change any of the settle-based views above.

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

- ZS=F SHORT entry 1279.1 stop 1300.5 target 1236 (1-5d, conv 6) → PENDING (entry not yet touched)	last settle 1280.8
- CL=F LONG entry 90.89 stop 88.28 target 96.34 (1-5d, conv 6) → OPEN (filled, running)	last settle 89.43 (unrealized -1.61%)
- SI=F SHORT entry 61.92 stop 63.42 target 59.45 (1-5d, conv 5) → OPEN (filled, running)	last settle 61.3 (unrealized +1%)
- NG=F SHORT entry 3.04 stop 3.14 target 2.86 (1-5d, conv 5) → OPEN (filled, running)	last settle 3.07 (unrealized -0.86%)

Stats (system-computed, quote as-is, no commentary): 4 ideas · limit fill 3/4 (75%) · avg MFE +0.38R (n=3) · avg MAE 0.51R (n=3) · avg realized n/a

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve — WTI M1-M2 backwardation narrowed to 1.42 from 1.68 (Δ -0.26), a mild negative for prompt tightness but still backwardated. Gold contango narrowed to -14.4 from -15.2 (Δ +0.8), reflecting carry. Silver contango widened to -0.27 from -0.227 (Δ -0.043). Nat gas contango narrowed to -0.293 from -0.306 (Δ +0.013). Copper contango unchanged at -0.0315. Heating oil backwardation widened to 0.1515 from 0.1438 (Δ +0.008). RBOB backwardation narrowed to 0.1979 from 0.2005 (Δ -0.003). Soybeans contango widened to -16.5 from -16.25 (Δ -0.25).

Inventories — LME aluminum warehouse_stock 240,375 MT d/d -250 (-0.1%); SHFE aluminum warrant 121,863 MT d/d -6,880 (-5.3%). COMEX copper registered 471,400 short ton d/d 0 (+0.0%); LME copper warehouse_stock 248,650 MT d/d +575 (+0.2%); SHFE copper warrant 10,011 MT d/d -721 (-6.7%). COMEX gold registered 15.09 Moz (469,352 kg) d/d 0 (+0.0%); SHFE gold warrant 116,028 kg d/d -3 (-0.0%). COMEX silver registered 101.1 Moz (3,144,564 kg) d/d -8,709 (-0.3%); SHFE silver warrant 1,490,865 kg d/d +30,504 (+2.1%).

Positioning — CFTC managed money for the week to 2026-09-29: gold net 120,318 (Δ -7,071 w/w) with price -4.49% over the same window — a divergence as longs trimmed into weakness. Crude net 79,592 (Δ -22,236 w/w) with price -1.26% — heavy liquidation. Copper net 78,058 (Δ -4,464 w/w) with price -3.4%. Nat gas net -132,799 (Δ -67,252 w/w) with price -3.4% — shorts added aggressively. Silver net 7,614 (Δ -5,695 w/w) with price -8.08%. Gold netPct 29.6% sits at a 92.51 crowding percentile — crowded long. Nat gas netPct -7.45% is at a 38.38 crowding percentile.

Vol — WTI OVX 51 vs RV20 43.4% → IV-RV +7.6 vol pts (IV/RV 1.18), a modest event premium. Gold GVZ 23.23 vs RV20 16.6% → IV-RV +6.6 vol pts (IV/RV 1.4), the richest premium in the complex. Silver VXSLV 36.9 vs RV20 33.7% → IV-RV +3.2 vol pts (IV/RV 1.09), close to fair. VIX 15.31 at the 15th percentile 1Y. Gold optionality is the most expensive relative to realized; silver is the cheapest.

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-07 04:30 / ET 10-06 16:30 — API Crude Oil Stock Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — surprise threshold: forecast vs previous (both pending)
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — surprise threshold: forecast vs previous (both pending)
BJT 10-07 22:30 / ET 10-07 10:30 — EIA Gasoline Stocks Change OCT/02 — CL, BZ — surprise threshold: forecast vs previous (both pending)
BJT 10-08 02:00 / ET 10-07 14:00 — FOMC Meeting Minutes — GC, SI, DXY — surprise threshold: any hawkish/dovish tilt beyond consensus
BJT 10-08 16:30 / ET 10-08 04:30 — FOMC Member Waller Speaks — GC, SI, DXY — surprise threshold: any rate-path guidance shift
BJT 10-14 09:30 / ET 10-13 21:30 — China CPI y/y — HG, CL, ZS — surprise threshold: forecast vs previous (both pending)
BJT 10-14 09:30 / ET 10-13 21:30 — China PPI y/y — HG, CL, ZS — surprise threshold: forecast vs previous (both pending)

8. Risk Factors

Gold: a settle below 4120.2 (S2) would break the 20D low and invalidate the neutral stance; a settle above 4187 (R1) would signal a range breakout.
WTI: a settle below 88.15 (S1) would invalidate the bullish view; the backwardation narrowing to 1.42 from 1.68 is a warning that prompt tightness is easing.
Silver: a settle above 63.42 (R2) would invalidate the bearish view; the gold/silver ratio at 68.35 (14th percentile 5Y) means silver has been structurally strong vs gold over time, so a sharp ratio reversal is a risk.
Nat gas: a settle above 3.1 (R1) would invalidate the bearish view; managed money net -132,799 lots (-67,252 w/w) is already heavily short, so a short-covering squeeze is a risk.
Macro: the FOMC Minutes on BJT 10-08 02:00 and China CPI/PPI on BJT 10-14 09:30 are the two highest-impact events; a hawkish Minutes print would pressure gold and silver, while a weak China PPI would pressure copper.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.

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