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Data as of: 2026-09-30 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)
郑商所 尿素主力连续(CZCE.UR)深度分析报告 | 空头回补下的偏多博弈 | 2026-10-08
当前郑商所尿素主力连续(CZCE.UR)方向判断为偏多。核心逻辑在于:价格成功站稳 20 日通道下沿并呈现减仓上涨特征,显示空头回补意愿强烈;周线级别虽未确认突破,但上一根已收盘周线收阳,且当前结算价位于枢轴 P 点之上,技术面支撑有效。尽管宏观层面缺乏直接利好,但供需端库存压力边际缓解,叠加主力合约名义持仓显著下降,市场情绪由防御转向进攻。方向失效条件为价格有效跌破 1759 元(S1 枢轴位)或周线收盘价重新站回 1745 元下方,届时需重新评估下行风险。
This brief is published in Chinese. The English translation is being prepared.
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