China Desk Digest 2026-10-19
Copper: tight term structure meets heavy warrant cancellations
SHFE copper's front-month spread widened to 690 yuan per tonne, a 0.63% premium, keeping the curve in backwardation (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-19). That premium signals nearby tightness on the domestic exchange. Meanwhile, LME cancelled warrants for copper reached 85,550.00 tonnes, a 37.75% cancellation ratio against opening stock (LME warrant data, as of 2026-10-16). Traders should watch whether the warrant drawdown feeds through to physical premia.
Lithium carbonate: backwardation as the contract reclaims a key level
GFEX lithium carbonate's front-month spread stood at 820 yuan per tonne, a 0.81% premium, keeping the curve in backwardation (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-19). SMM reported the contract bottomed out and reclaimed the 100,000 yuan level on October 19. GFEX also set the LC2710 trading fee at 0.008% of turnover with an 800-lot single-day opening limit (GFEX_Notice, 2026-10-19). The combination of a firm curve and tighter position rules matters for liquidity.
Soybean meal: deep contango flags nearby supply comfort
DCE soybean meal's front-month spread was negative 53 yuan per tonne, a 1.61% discount, leaving the curve in contango (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-19). That is the steepest carry among the contracts tracked here and points to ample nearby availability. The main month stayed at 2701 with no roll (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-19). Meal traders should weigh the carry against the night session, where CZCE rapeseed meal fell 1.87% (CLS_Telegram, 2026-10-19).
Copper and tin: warrant ratios diverge across LME metals
LME tin cancelled warrants totaled 585.00 tonnes, a 13.91% cancellation ratio on opening stock of 4,205.00 tonnes (LME warrant data, as of 2026-10-16). That is far below copper's 37.75% ratio, suggesting less immediate drawdown pressure on tin. Lead's cancellation ratio was 11.07% on 339,800.00 tonnes of opening stock (LME warrant data, as of 2026-10-16). Desk note: the warrant mix favors copper tightness over tin or lead for now.
Gold: domestic curve in contango as spot slips
SHFE gold's front-month spread was negative 1.36 yuan per gramme, a 0.15% discount, keeping the curve in contango (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-19). Silver showed a similar shape, with a negative 20 yuan per kilogramme spread, a 0.14% discount (China domestic curve, as of 2026-10-19). Spot gold dropped below $4,150 per ounce, down 0.38% intraday (CLS_Telegram, 2026-10-19). The gentle carry suggests no domestic squeeze despite the softer spot tape.
Data provenance
- China domestic term structure (M1-M2 spread, main contract) as of 2026-10-19
- LME cancelled warrants as of 2026-10-16
- Yangshan copper premium (USD/t) as of 2026-10-19
- China headlines, 2026-10-19
- English-native China flashes — SMM_EN / Mysteel_EN, 2026-10-19
Sources
- GFEX Announcement on Polysilicon Futures PS2710 and Lithium Carbonate Futures LC2710 Contracts GFEX_Notice · 2026-10-19 17:03
- Enhancing futures board price representativeness, DCE adjusts live hog futures delivery invoice types DCE_Notice · 2026-10-19 16:58
- High-speed optical module component orders booked through end-2027; value of a single glass piece up over 60x CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-19 23:13
- China commodity futures night session mostly lower; chemicals lead declines, DCE ethylene glycol down 3.73% CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-19 23:01
- NYSE to extend trading hours for certain options, covering securities such as NVIDIA and Apple CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-19 22:12
- PCB + optical modules + satellite communications + Huawei! Company's 1.6T switch product enters small-batch mass production CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-19 22:06
- Spot gold falls below $4,150, down 0.38% on the day CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-19 21:47
- China commodity night session opens mixed: fuel oil +1.31%, SHFE aluminum +0.56%, rapeseed oil +0.54%, SHFE nickel +0.4% CLS_Telegram · 2026-10-19 21:00
- [SMM Chromium Flash] China's Chrome Ore Port Inventory Falls 0.49% WoW to 4.97 Mt as of Oct 16 SMM_EN · 2026-10-19 21:40
- [SMM Coal Flash] China’s September Coal Output Falls 6.8% YoY to 385.13 Million Tonnes SMM_EN · 2026-10-19 18:31
- [SMM Lithium Carbonate Daily Review] Lithium carbonate bottomed out on October 19, reclaiming the key 100,000 yuan level SMM_EN · 2026-10-19 17:45
- [SMM Analysis] Asian Molybdenum Oxide Offers Rise as China Returns—Can the Rally Hold? SMM_EN · 2026-10-19 17:22
- [Brief Comment on Chinese Iron Ore] Prices at mines and beneficiation plants in Shandong may edge up slightly SMM_EN · 2026-10-19 17:09
- Market circulation surplus, discounts keep plunging [SMM South China Spot Aluminum Daily Review] SMM_EN · 2026-10-19 16:45
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