📅 2026-10-13 · アルゴブリーフ · 19:00 ET (prev day)

本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-13 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格
Generated: 2026-10-13 07:05:30 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-12
本文・Best Trade・チャートは同一の決済スナップショットを使用。ザラ場の実勢価格は結論に含めません。

Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-13: Brent Asia +1.36% vs 10-09 settle, WTI backwardation widens to 0.84

1) Brent (BZ=F) Asia 106.14 (+1.36% vs 10-09 settle 106.65) at the 90th percentile of its 20D range — geopolitical risk premium re-pricing after Russia-Ukraine strikes and Saudi Houthi response vows.
2) WTI (CL=F) settle 94.14 (+2.06%) with backwardation M1-M2 widening to 0.84 from 0.74 and 3:2:1 crack at 64.55 (96th pct) — prompt tightness intact but refiner margins rolled over.

1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter

1. Brent (BZ=F) Asia 106.14 (+1.36% vs 10-09 settle 106.65) — at the 90th percentile of its 20D range (93.68–105.91), re-pricing geopolitical risk after Russia struck Ukraine and Saudi vowed a Houthi response; watch whether Asia holds above the 105.73 R1 (settle 10-09) into the US session.

2. WTI (CL=F) settle 94.14 (+2.06% d/d) — backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.84 from 0.74 and the 3:2:1 crack fell to 64.55 (−2.2, 96th pct); prompt tightness persists but refiner margins rolled over — watch the 95.53 R1 (settle 10-12) and whether Asia weakness (93.35, −0.42%) extends.

3. Gold (GC=F) Asia 4193.37 (+0.07% vs 4177.3 settle) — managed money net length fell 9,331 w/w to 110,987 lots as price rose 0.18% (divergence), crowding at the 91st percentile; watch the 4229.23 R1 (settle 10-12) and the 10-14 US CPI print.

2. Best Trade Today

No trade met the publication standard today (stop distance and reward-to-risk checks). Standing aside.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4177.3 [settle 10-12], −0.61% d/d, managed money net length 110,987 (−9,331 w/w) as price rose 0.18% (divergence: price up, funds cutting), crowding 91st pct | key level: 4229.23 (R1, settle 10-12) | invalidation: settle below 4165.03 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
Silver (SI) — Neutral | driver: settle 60.513 [settle 10-12], −0.88% d/d, COMEX registered stocks 102.81 Moz (+0.59 Moz as of 10-08), managed money net 7,528 (−86 w/w) as price rose 0.71% (divergence) | key level: 61.374 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 60.024 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 94.14 [settle 10-12], +2.06% d/d, backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.84 from 0.74, 3:2:1 crack 64.55 (−2.2, 96th pct) | key level: 95.53 (R1, settle 10-12) | invalidation: settle below 87.82 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.
Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 106.65 [settle 10-09], +0.42% d/d and +4.95% 20D, 90th pct of 20D range; WTI–Brent spread −12.87 (0th pct) — the Brent premium alone does not establish a tighter Brent calendar curve | key level: 105.73 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 103.05 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
Natural Gas (NG) — Neutral | driver: settle 3.167 [settle 10-12], −1.65% d/d but +3.29% 5D; managed money net −144,537 (−11,738 w/w) as price rose 3.42% (divergence) | key level: 3.2167 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 3.1047 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
Soybeans (ZS) — Neutral | driver: settle 1282.75 [settle 10-12], −0.33% d/d, managed money net 29th pct, 20D range 1269.75–1332.25 | key level: 1293.17 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 1280.17 (S1) | vs last issue: new.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 10-12	1D (settle)	5D (settle)	Asia 10-13 07:00 BJT	vs settle
Gold	4177.3	-0.61%	+0.81%	4193.37	+0.07%
Silver	60.513	-0.88%	-1.28%	60.518	+0.01%
WTI Crude	94.14	+2.06%	+4.82%	93.35	-0.42%
Brent Crude	106.65 (10-09)	+0.42%	+2.42%	106.14	+1.36%
Natural Gas	3.167	-1.65%	+3.29%	3.185	+0.57%
Copper	6.747	+0.82%	+1.60%	6.7586	+0.17%
Soybeans	1282.75	-0.33%	+0.55%	n/a	n/a
Corn	483	+0.68%	-2.87%	n/a	n/a
Wheat	668.25	+0.19%	-2.89%	n/a	n/a

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-12 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = report-date intraday observation from the supplied snapshot, not a settlement or a guaranteed 08:00 cutoff; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._

Cross-market spreads & ratios

Spread / ratio	Formula	Now (settle mm-dd)	Prior close	Day change	1Y pct	Reading
WTI–Brent spread	`CL − BZ`	-12.87 (10-09)	-12.79	-0.08	0%	negative = Brent premium over WTI
Gold/Silver ratio	`GC ÷ SI`	69.25 (10-12)	69.07	+0.19	75%	high/rising = silver lagging gold
Copper/Gold ratio	`HG ÷ GC × 1000`	1.61 (10-12)	1.59	+0.02	99%	high/rising = pro-growth / risk-on
Gold/oil ratio (bbl/oz)	`GC ÷ CL`	44.7 (10-12)	45.9	-1.2	2%	barrels of WTI one troy ounce of gold buys
3:2:1 crack spread	`(2×RB + HO) × 42 ÷ 3 − CL`	64.55 (10-12)	66.75	-2.20	96%	refiner margin per bbl of crude

_Computed from the same final settles as the table above; every leg of a row shares one settlement date (shown in brackets), otherwise the row is omitted. Prior close = previous common settlement date. 1Y pct = percentile over the last 252 sessions, same convention as the percentile table._

Instrument	Settle (prior session)	Asia (unfinished)	Change (Asia)
GC=F Gold	4177.3 [2026-10-12]	4193.37	+0.07%
SI=F Silver	60.513 [2026-10-12]	60.518	+0.01%
CL=F WTI	94.14 [2026-10-12]	93.35	−0.42%
BZ=F Brent	106.65 [2026-10-09]	106.14	+1.36%
NG=F Nat Gas	3.167 [2026-10-12]	3.185	+0.57%
HG=F Copper	6.747 [2026-10-12]	6.7586	+0.17%
ZS=F Soybeans	1282.75 [2026-10-12]	—	—

Asia is flat-to-firmer across precious and base metals, with Brent the standout: +1.36% vs its 10-09 settle, trading an Asia range of 102.8–107.3. WTI drifted −0.42% below its settle while natural gas added +0.57%.

Spread / Ratio	Now (settle)	Prior	Day Δ	1Y pct
WTI–Brent	−12.87 (10-09)	−12.79	−0.08	0%
Gold/Silver	69.25 (10-12)	69.07	+0.19	75%
Copper/Gold	1.59 (10-12)	1.59	+0.02	99%
Gold/Oil	44.7 (10-12)	45.9	−1.2	2%
3:2:1 Crack	64.55 (10-12)	66.75	−2.2	96%

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

HG=F LONG entry 6.5623 stop 6.4327 target 6.7708 (1-5d, conv 6) → PENDING (entry not yet touched) | last settle 6.747 | thesis: Copper settled 6.692 with LME warehouse stock down 2,200 MT d/d and the copper/gold ratio
Stats (system-computed): 1 ideas · limit fill 0/1 (0%) · avg MFE n/a · avg MAE n/a · avg realized n/a

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve. Brent backwardation M1-M2 widened to 3.47 (3.43%) from 3.32; WTI backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.84 from 0.74. Soybean meal flipped flat→backwardation (M1-M2 +1.9 from +0.1). Copper contango unchanged at −0.0305. Natural gas contango narrowed marginally (−0.326 vs −0.327). Heating oil backwardation narrowed slightly (0.15 vs 0.1664). Gold contango widened to −19.2 from −18.9.

Inventories. LME copper −2,200 MT d/d to 233,025 MT (as of 10-09); COMEX copper registered +4,500 short tons to 475,900 (as of 10-08); SHFE copper warrant +500 MT to 8,785 (as of 10-12). LME nickel −1,314 MT to 282,864; LME zinc −575 MT to 126,850. COMEX gold registered unchanged at 15.07 Moz (as of 10-08); COMEX silver registered +0.59 Moz to 102.81 Moz (as of 10-08). SHFE aluminum warrant −13,318 MT (−11.72%) to 100,292 (as of 10-12). ⚠Aluminum and Zinc settles are stale (2026-09-25) — cite direction/levels only, no daily move.

Positioning. CFTC managed money (as of 2026-10-06): gold net 110,987 (−9,331 w/w) with price +0.18% — divergence; silver net 7,528 (−86) with price +0.71% — divergence; copper net 61,134 (−16,924) with price +0.7% — divergence; crude net 53,598 (−25,994) with price +0.07% — aligned (both flat); natural gas net −144,537 (−11,738) with price +3.42% — divergence. Crowding: gold 91st pct (crowded long), copper 62nd, silver 40th, crude 15th, gas 40th.

Vol. WTI: OVX 48.9 (43rd pct) vs RV20 37.7% → IV−RV +11.2 pts (IV/RV 1.3) — event premium. Gold: GVZ 22.79 (12th pct) vs RV20 17.5% → +5.3 pts (1.3) — event premium. Silver: VXSLV 36.33 vs RV20 28.8% → +7.5 pts (1.26). VIX 14.84 (8th pct) — equity vol cheap. ATR14: CL 4.235 (4.52% of price), GC 80.19 (1.91%), SI 2.076 (3.43%), NG 0.1406 (4.44%).

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-13 16:03 | ET 10-13 04:03 — CNY M2 Money Supply y/y (F:7.4%, P:7.5%, surprise if outside F±0.1%) → HG, CL, ZS
BJT 10-13 16:03 | ET 10-13 04:03 — CNY New Loans (F:1025B, P:60B, surprise if outside F±965B) → HG, CL, ZS
BJT 10-14 09:30 | ET 10-13 21:30 — CNY CPI y/y (F:1.0%, P:0.8%, surprise if outside F±0.2%) → HG, CL, ZS
BJT 10-14 09:30 | ET 10-13 21:30 — CNY PPI y/y (F:4.4%, P:3.8%, surprise if outside F±0.6%) → HG, CL, ZS
BJT 10-14 10:03 | ET 10-13 22:03 — CNY Trade Balance (F:790B, P:809B, surprise if outside F±19B) → HG, CL, ZS
BJT 10-14 20:30 | ET 10-14 08:30 — US Core CPI m/m (F:0.2%, P:0.3%, surprise if outside F±0.1%) → GC, SI, DXY
BJT 10-14 20:30 | ET 10-14 08:30 — US CPI y/y (F:3.6%, P:3.4%, surprise if outside F±0.2%) → GC, SI, DXY
BJT 10-16 11:30 | ET 10-15 23:30 — Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks (no forecast) → GC, SI, DXY

8. Risk Factors

Brent geopolitical escalation — Russia-Ukraine strikes and Saudi Houthi response vows; a supply disruption would push BZ through 107.5 and invalidate the short fade.
US CPI surprise (10-14 ET) — Core CPI m/m outside F±0.1% or y/y outside F±0.2% would re-price gold and silver via real yields; GC invalidation at 4165.03 (S1) is ~1.3× ATR14 below settle.
China data cluster (10-13–10-14) — M2, new loans, CPI, PPI and trade balance all land within hours; a miss on new loans (F:1025B vs P:60B) would hit copper and crude demand expectations.
WTI backwardation unwind — if M1-M2 collapses back toward 0.74 or below, the bullish prompt-tightness thesis weakens; CL support at 90.78 (S1) is ~1.4× ATR14 below settle.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.