1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter
1. Brent (BZ=F) Asia 106.14 (+1.36% vs 10-09 settle 106.65) — at the 90th percentile of its 20D range (93.68–105.91), re-pricing geopolitical risk after Russia struck Ukraine and Saudi vowed a Houthi response; watch whether Asia holds above the 105.73 R1 (settle 10-09) into the US session.
2. WTI (CL=F) settle 94.14 (+2.06% d/d) — backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.84 from 0.74 and the 3:2:1 crack fell to 64.55 (−2.2, 96th pct); prompt tightness persists but refiner margins rolled over — watch the 95.53 R1 (settle 10-12) and whether Asia weakness (93.35, −0.42%) extends.
3. Gold (GC=F) Asia 4193.37 (+0.07% vs 4177.3 settle) — managed money net length fell 9,331 w/w to 110,987 lots as price rose 0.18% (divergence), crowding at the 91st percentile; watch the 4229.23 R1 (settle 10-12) and the 10-14 US CPI print.
2. Best Trade Today
No trade met the publication standard today (stop distance and reward-to-risk checks). Standing aside.
3. Instrument Views & What Changed
- Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4177.3 [settle 10-12], −0.61% d/d, managed money net length 110,987 (−9,331 w/w) as price rose 0.18% (divergence: price up, funds cutting), crowding 91st pct | key level: 4229.23 (R1, settle 10-12) | invalidation: settle below 4165.03 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Silver (SI) — Neutral | driver: settle 60.513 [settle 10-12], −0.88% d/d, COMEX registered stocks 102.81 Moz (+0.59 Moz as of 10-08), managed money net 7,528 (−86 w/w) as price rose 0.71% (divergence) | key level: 61.374 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 60.024 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 94.14 [settle 10-12], +2.06% d/d, backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.84 from 0.74, 3:2:1 crack 64.55 (−2.2, 96th pct) | key level: 95.53 (R1, settle 10-12) | invalidation: settle below 87.82 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 106.65 [settle 10-09], +0.42% d/d and +4.95% 20D, 90th pct of 20D range; WTI–Brent spread −12.87 (0th pct) — the Brent premium alone does not establish a tighter Brent calendar curve | key level: 105.73 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 103.05 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Natural Gas (NG) — Neutral | driver: settle 3.167 [settle 10-12], −1.65% d/d but +3.29% 5D; managed money net −144,537 (−11,738 w/w) as price rose 3.42% (divergence) | key level: 3.2167 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 3.1047 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Soybeans (ZS) — Neutral | driver: settle 1282.75 [settle 10-12], −0.33% d/d, managed money net 29th pct, 20D range 1269.75–1332.25 | key level: 1293.17 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 1280.17 (S1) | vs last issue: new.
4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot
| Contract | Final settle 10-12 | 1D (settle) | 5D (settle) | Asia 10-13 07:00 BJT | vs settle |
|---|
| Gold | 4177.3 | -0.61% | +0.81% | 4193.37 | +0.07% |
| Silver | 60.513 | -0.88% | -1.28% | 60.518 | +0.01% |
| WTI Crude | 94.14 | +2.06% | +4.82% | 93.35 | -0.42% |
| Brent Crude | 106.65 (10-09) | +0.42% | +2.42% | 106.14 | +1.36% |
| Natural Gas | 3.167 | -1.65% | +3.29% | 3.185 | +0.57% |
| Copper | 6.747 | +0.82% | +1.60% | 6.7586 | +0.17% |
| Soybeans | 1282.75 | -0.33% | +0.55% | n/a | n/a |
| Corn | 483 | +0.68% | -2.87% | n/a | n/a |
| Wheat | 668.25 | +0.19% | -2.89% | n/a | n/a |
_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-12 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = report-date intraday observation from the supplied snapshot, not a settlement or a guaranteed 08:00 cutoff; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._
Cross-market spreads & ratios
| Spread / ratio | Formula | Now (settle mm-dd) | Prior close | Day change | 1Y pct | Reading |
|---|
| WTI–Brent spread | CL − BZ | -12.87 (10-09) | -12.79 | -0.08 | 0% | negative = Brent premium over WTI |
| Gold/Silver ratio | GC ÷ SI | 69.25 (10-12) | 69.07 | +0.19 | 75% | high/rising = silver lagging gold |
| Copper/Gold ratio | HG ÷ GC × 1000 | 1.61 (10-12) | 1.59 | +0.02 | 99% | high/rising = pro-growth / risk-on |
| Gold/oil ratio (bbl/oz) | GC ÷ CL | 44.7 (10-12) | 45.9 | -1.2 | 2% | barrels of WTI one troy ounce of gold buys |
| 3:2:1 crack spread | (2×RB + HO) × 42 ÷ 3 − CL | 64.55 (10-12) | 66.75 | -2.20 | 96% | refiner margin per bbl of crude |
_Computed from the same final settles as the table above; every leg of a row shares one settlement date (shown in brackets), otherwise the row is omitted. Prior close = previous common settlement date. 1Y pct = percentile over the last 252 sessions, same convention as the percentile table._
| Instrument | Settle (prior session) | Asia (unfinished) | Change (Asia) |
|---|
| GC=F Gold | 4177.3 [2026-10-12] | 4193.37 | +0.07% |
| SI=F Silver | 60.513 [2026-10-12] | 60.518 | +0.01% |
| CL=F WTI | 94.14 [2026-10-12] | 93.35 | −0.42% |
| BZ=F Brent | 106.65 [2026-10-09] | 106.14 | +1.36% |
| NG=F Nat Gas | 3.167 [2026-10-12] | 3.185 | +0.57% |
| HG=F Copper | 6.747 [2026-10-12] | 6.7586 | +0.17% |
| ZS=F Soybeans | 1282.75 [2026-10-12] | — | — |
Asia is flat-to-firmer across precious and base metals, with Brent the standout: +1.36% vs its 10-09 settle, trading an Asia range of 102.8–107.3. WTI drifted −0.42% below its settle while natural gas added +0.57%.
| Spread / Ratio | Now (settle) | Prior | Day Δ | 1Y pct |
|---|
| WTI–Brent | −12.87 (10-09) | −12.79 | −0.08 | 0% |
| Gold/Silver | 69.25 (10-12) | 69.07 | +0.19 | 75% |
| Copper/Gold | 1.59 (10-12) | 1.59 | +0.02 | 99% |
| Gold/Oil | 44.7 (10-12) | 45.9 | −1.2 | 2% |
| 3:2:1 Crack | 64.55 (10-12) | 66.75 | −2.2 | 96% |
5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard
- HG=F LONG entry 6.5623 stop 6.4327 target 6.7708 (1-5d, conv 6) → PENDING (entry not yet touched) | last settle 6.747 | thesis: Copper settled 6.692 with LME warehouse stock down 2,200 MT d/d and the copper/gold ratio
- Stats (system-computed): 1 ideas · limit fill 0/1 (0%) · avg MFE n/a · avg MAE n/a · avg realized n/a
6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol
Curve. Brent backwardation M1-M2 widened to 3.47 (3.43%) from 3.32; WTI backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.84 from 0.74. Soybean meal flipped flat→backwardation (M1-M2 +1.9 from +0.1). Copper contango unchanged at −0.0305. Natural gas contango narrowed marginally (−0.326 vs −0.327). Heating oil backwardation narrowed slightly (0.15 vs 0.1664). Gold contango widened to −19.2 from −18.9.
Inventories. LME copper −2,200 MT d/d to 233,025 MT (as of 10-09); COMEX copper registered +4,500 short tons to 475,900 (as of 10-08); SHFE copper warrant +500 MT to 8,785 (as of 10-12). LME nickel −1,314 MT to 282,864; LME zinc −575 MT to 126,850. COMEX gold registered unchanged at 15.07 Moz (as of 10-08); COMEX silver registered +0.59 Moz to 102.81 Moz (as of 10-08). SHFE aluminum warrant −13,318 MT (−11.72%) to 100,292 (as of 10-12). ⚠Aluminum and Zinc settles are stale (2026-09-25) — cite direction/levels only, no daily move.
Positioning. CFTC managed money (as of 2026-10-06): gold net 110,987 (−9,331 w/w) with price +0.18% — divergence; silver net 7,528 (−86) with price +0.71% — divergence; copper net 61,134 (−16,924) with price +0.7% — divergence; crude net 53,598 (−25,994) with price +0.07% — aligned (both flat); natural gas net −144,537 (−11,738) with price +3.42% — divergence. Crowding: gold 91st pct (crowded long), copper 62nd, silver 40th, crude 15th, gas 40th.
Vol. WTI: OVX 48.9 (43rd pct) vs RV20 37.7% → IV−RV +11.2 pts (IV/RV 1.3) — event premium. Gold: GVZ 22.79 (12th pct) vs RV20 17.5% → +5.3 pts (1.3) — event premium. Silver: VXSLV 36.33 vs RV20 28.8% → +7.5 pts (1.26). VIX 14.84 (8th pct) — equity vol cheap. ATR14: CL 4.235 (4.52% of price), GC 80.19 (1.91%), SI 2.076 (3.43%), NG 0.1406 (4.44%).
7. Week Ahead Calendar
- BJT 10-13 16:03 | ET 10-13 04:03 — CNY M2 Money Supply y/y (F:7.4%, P:7.5%, surprise if outside F±0.1%) → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-13 16:03 | ET 10-13 04:03 — CNY New Loans (F:1025B, P:60B, surprise if outside F±965B) → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-14 09:30 | ET 10-13 21:30 — CNY CPI y/y (F:1.0%, P:0.8%, surprise if outside F±0.2%) → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-14 09:30 | ET 10-13 21:30 — CNY PPI y/y (F:4.4%, P:3.8%, surprise if outside F±0.6%) → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-14 10:03 | ET 10-13 22:03 — CNY Trade Balance (F:790B, P:809B, surprise if outside F±19B) → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-14 20:30 | ET 10-14 08:30 — US Core CPI m/m (F:0.2%, P:0.3%, surprise if outside F±0.1%) → GC, SI, DXY
- BJT 10-14 20:30 | ET 10-14 08:30 — US CPI y/y (F:3.6%, P:3.4%, surprise if outside F±0.2%) → GC, SI, DXY
- BJT 10-16 11:30 | ET 10-15 23:30 — Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks (no forecast) → GC, SI, DXY
8. Risk Factors
- Brent geopolitical escalation — Russia-Ukraine strikes and Saudi Houthi response vows; a supply disruption would push BZ through 107.5 and invalidate the short fade.
- US CPI surprise (10-14 ET) — Core CPI m/m outside F±0.1% or y/y outside F±0.2% would re-price gold and silver via real yields; GC invalidation at 4165.03 (S1) is ~1.3× ATR14 below settle.
- China data cluster (10-13–10-14) — M2, new loans, CPI, PPI and trade balance all land within hours; a miss on new loans (F:1025B vs P:60B) would hit copper and crude demand expectations.
- WTI backwardation unwind — if M1-M2 collapses back toward 0.74 or below, the bullish prompt-tightness thesis weakens; CL support at 90.78 (S1) is ~1.4× ATR14 below settle.
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.
No trade setups were approved for publication today.