📅 2026-10-14 · アルゴブリーフ · 19:00 ET (prev day)

本レポート提供元 MacroTerms.com

データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格
Generated: 2026-10-14 11:29:55 · Benchmark settle: 2026-10-13
本文・Best Trade・チャートは同一の決済スナップショットを使用。ザラ場の実勢価格は結論に含めません。

Commodities Pre-Open Brief 2026-10-14: Gold Anchored at 4177.3, WTI Backwardation Widens to 0.88

1) Gold settled 4107.9 (-0.32% d/d) with managed money net length cut 9,331 w/w as price rose — a divergence flagging weak sponsorship; watch 4229.23 R1 and 4165.03 S1.
2) WTI settled 94.14 (+0.43% d/d) with backwardation M1-M2 widening to 0.88 and 3:2:1 crack at 65.94 (92nd pct) — prompt tightness persists.
3) Asia open is mixed: WTI +0.66% (Asia) and Nat Gas +3.16% (Asia) leading, silver -0.58% (Asia) lagging; US CPI at 20:30 BJT is the key catalyst.

1. Executive Summary: Two Things That Matter

1. Gold (GC) settled 4107.9 (-0.32% d/d, settle 10-13) with managed money net length cut 9,331 w/w as price rose 0.18% — a divergence signaling weak sponsorship despite elevated crowding (91st pct). Watch R1 4229.23 and S1 4165.03; a break below S1 invalidates the range.

2. Asia opens mixed with a clear energy bid: WTI +0.66% (Asia) and Nat Gas +3.16% (Asia) leading, while silver -0.58% (Asia) lags. The US CPI print at 20:30 BJT (Core CPI y/y F:2.5%, CPI y/y F:3.6%) is the key catalyst for gold and the dollar.

2. Best Trade Today

No trade met the publication standard today (stop distance and reward-to-risk checks). Standing aside.

3. Instrument Views & What Changed

Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4107.9 [settle 10-13], -0.32% d/d, managed money net 110,987 (-9,331 w/w) as price rose 0.18% (divergence: price up, funds cutting), crowding 91st pct | key level: 4229.23 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 4165.03 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
Silver (SI) — Neutral | driver: settle 59.525 [settle 10-13], -1.63% d/d, COMEX registered stocks 102.76 Moz (-0.05 Moz as of 10-09), managed money net 7,528 (-86 w/w) as price rose 0.71% (divergence) | key level: 61.374 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 60.024 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 95.09 [settle 10-13], +0.43% d/d, backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.88 from 0.84, 3:2:1 crack 65.94 (+1.39, 92nd pct) | key level: 95.53 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 87.82 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.
Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 105.69 [settle 10-09], +1.84% d/d, 95th pct of 20D range; WTI-Brent spread -12.91 (0th pct) — the Brent premium alone does not establish a tighter Brent calendar curve | key level: 105.73 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 103.05 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
Natural Gas (NG) — Neutral | driver: settle 3.283 [settle 10-13], +3.66% d/d, managed money net -144,537 (-11,738 w/w) as price rose 3.42% (divergence) | key level: 3.2167 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 3.1047 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
Soybeans (ZS) — Neutral | driver: settle 1277.25 [settle 10-13], -0.31% d/d, managed money net 29th pct, 20D range 1269.75-1332.25 | key level: 1293.17 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 1280.17 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.

4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot

Contract	Final settle 10-13	1D (settle)	5D (settle)	Asia 10-14 08:00 BJT	vs settle
Gold	4107.9	-0.32%	-0.23%	4177.7	+0.01%
Silver	59.525	-1.63%	-3.35%	59.181	-0.58%
WTI Crude	95.09	+0.43%	+5.25%	94.76	+0.66%
Brent Crude	105.69 (10-12)	+1.84%	+6.31%	106.32	-0.31%
Natural Gas	3.283	+3.66%	+5.43%	n/a	n/a
Copper	6.726	-0.31%	+1.15%	6.7185	-0.11%
Soybeans	1277.25	-0.31%	-1.48%	n/a	n/a
Corn	482.75	-0.05%	-4.97%	n/a	n/a
Wheat	673.50	-0.45%	-4.97%	n/a	n/a

_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-13 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = report-date intraday observation from the supplied snapshot, not a settlement or a guaranteed 08:00 cutoff; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._

Cross-market spreads & ratios

Spread / ratio	Formula	Now (settle mm-dd)	Prior close	Day change	1Y pct	Reading
WTI–Brent spread	`CL − BZ`	-12.91 (10-12)	-12.87	-0.04	0%	negative = Brent premium over WTI
Gold/Silver ratio	`GC ÷ SI`	70.18 (10-13)	69.25	+0.93	83%	high/rising = silver lagging gold
Copper/Gold ratio	`HG ÷ GC × 1000`	1.61 (10-13)	1.61	+0.00	100%	high/rising = pro-growth / risk-on
Gold/oil ratio (bbl/oz)	`GC ÷ CL`	44.4 (10-13)	44.7	-0.3	2%	barrels of WTI one troy ounce of gold buys
3:2:1 crack spread	`(2×RB + HO) × 42 ÷ 3 − CL`	65.94 (10-13)	64.55	+1.39	92%	refiner margin per bbl of crude

_Computed from the same final settles as the table above; every leg of a row shares one settlement date (shown in brackets), otherwise the row is omitted. Prior close = previous common settlement date. 1Y pct = percentile over the last 252 sessions, same convention as the percentile table._

Gold (GC) Asia last 4177.7 (+0.01% vs settle 4107.9) — flat, range-bound. Silver (SI) Asia 59.181 (-0.58%) — lagging. WTI (CL) Asia 94.76 (+0.66%) — bid. Brent (BZ) Asia 106.32 (-0.31% vs settle 105.69) — softer. Nat Gas (NG) Asia 1474.45 (+3.16% vs settle 1429.25) — strong bid. Copper (HG) Asia 6.7185 (-0.11%) — flat.

Spread / ratio	Now (settle)	Prior close	Day change	1Y pct
WTI-Brent spread	-12.91 (10-12)	-12.87	-0.04	0%
Gold/Silver ratio	70.18 (10-13)	69.25	+0.93	83%
Copper/Gold ratio	1.61 (10-13)	1.61	+0	100%
Gold/oil ratio	44.4 (10-13)	44.7	-0.3	2%
3:2:1 crack spread	65.94 (10-13)	64.55	+1.39	92%

5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard

The system carried one live idea into this report; no prior calls were open. The single idea was not filled, so no MFE, MAE, or realized P&L exists to report.

Stats (system-computed, quote as-is, no commentary): 1 idea · limit fill 0/1 (0%) · avg MFE n/a · avg MAE n/a · avg realized n/a
No other calls were carried forward from the prior issue; the scorecard reflects a single live idea with zero realized or unrealized P&L to report.

6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol

Curve: WTI backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.88 (+0.04 d/d), confirming prompt tightness. Brent M1-M2 at 3.45 narrowed slightly (-0.02). Nat Gas contango M1-M2 widened to -0.339 (-0.013). Copper remains in contango at -0.0305 (unchanged). Silver contango narrowed to -0.227 (+0.006).

Inventories: LME copper stock 231,275 MT (-1,750 MT d/d, -13,625 5-report); COMEX copper registered 470,200 short tons (-5,700 d/d, as of 10-09). LME aluminum 238,625 MT (-250 d/d); SHFE aluminum warrant 95,305 MT (-4,987 d/d). COMEX gold registered 15.07 Moz (unchanged d/d, as of 10-09). COMEX silver registered 102.76 Moz (-0.05 Moz, as of 10-09).

Positioning: CFTC (as of 10-06) shows managed money net length cut across the board as prices rose — gold -9,331 w/w (price +0.18%), copper -16,924 w/w (price +0.7%), natural gas -11,738 w/w (price +3.42%), silver -86 w/w (price +0.71%), crude -25,994 w/w (price +0.07%). All five tagged as divergences: price up while funds cut length, signaling weak sponsorship.

Vol: WTI IV (OVX 48.52) vs RV20 35% → IV-RV +13.5 vol pts (event premium elevated). Gold IV (GVZ 22.48) vs RV20 17.5% → +5.0 vol pts. Silver IV (VXSLV 36.33) vs RV20 29.2% → +7.1 vol pts. VIX at 15.27 (16th pct) — equity vol is cheap.

7. Week Ahead Calendar

BJT 10-14 09:30 | ET 10-13 21:30 — China CPI y/y (F:1.0%, P:0.8%) — HG, CL, ZS — surprise if outside F±0.2%.
BJT 10-14 09:30 | ET 10-13 21:30 — China PPI y/y (F:4.4%, P:3.8%) — HG, CL, ZS — surprise if outside F±0.6%.
BJT 10-14 10:03-11:04 | ET 10-13 22:03-23:04 — China Trade Balance (F:790B) and USD-denominated Trade Balance (F:116.8B) — HG, CL, ZS — surprise if outside F±19B / ±2.3B.
BJT 10-14 16:03 | ET 10-14 04:03 — China M2 y/y (F:7.4%, P:7.5%) and New Loans (F:1025B, P:60B) — HG, CL, ZS — surprise if outside F±0.1% / ±965B.
BJT 10-14 20:30 | ET 10-14 08:30 — US Core CPI m/m (F:0.2%), Core CPI y/y (F:2.5%), CPI m/m (F:0.6%), CPI y/y (F:3.6%) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside F±0.1-0.2%.
BJT 10-15 20:30 | ET 10-15 08:30 — US Core PPI m/m (F:0.3%), Core Retail Sales m/m (F:0.6%), PPI m/m (F:0.6%), Retail Sales m/m (F:0.3%) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside F±0.1-0.9%.

8. Risk Factors

US CPI (BJT 10-14 20:30) hotter than F:3.6% y/y → dollar strength, gold break below 4165.03 (S1). The GC/SI divergence (price up, managed money cutting net length) leaves gold exposed to a hawkish surprise with no fund bid underneath.
Silver divergence deepens: price below 60.024 (S1) confirms bearish continuation; COMEX registered stocks at 102.76 Moz (-0.05 Moz) offer no supply-side offset, and the gold/silver ratio at 70.18 (83% of 1Y range) shows silver lagging gold on every upswing.
Nat Gas contango widening (-0.339 M1-M2) with managed money still net short -144,537 → downside risk if storage data disappoints; the divergence (price up 3.42% while funds cut net length) mirrors the gold and silver pattern, suggesting the rally lacks institutional sponsorship.

This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.