1. Executive Summary: Two Things That Matter
1. Gold (GC) settled 4107.9 (-0.32% d/d, settle 10-13) with managed money net length cut 9,331 w/w as price rose 0.18% — a divergence signaling weak sponsorship despite elevated crowding (91st pct). Watch R1 4229.23 and S1 4165.03; a break below S1 invalidates the range.
2. Asia opens mixed with a clear energy bid: WTI +0.66% (Asia) and Nat Gas +3.16% (Asia) leading, while silver -0.58% (Asia) lags. The US CPI print at 20:30 BJT (Core CPI y/y F:2.5%, CPI y/y F:3.6%) is the key catalyst for gold and the dollar.
2. Best Trade Today
No trade met the publication standard today (stop distance and reward-to-risk checks). Standing aside.
3. Instrument Views & What Changed
- Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4107.9 [settle 10-13], -0.32% d/d, managed money net 110,987 (-9,331 w/w) as price rose 0.18% (divergence: price up, funds cutting), crowding 91st pct | key level: 4229.23 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 4165.03 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Silver (SI) — Neutral | driver: settle 59.525 [settle 10-13], -1.63% d/d, COMEX registered stocks 102.76 Moz (-0.05 Moz as of 10-09), managed money net 7,528 (-86 w/w) as price rose 0.71% (divergence) | key level: 61.374 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 60.024 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 95.09 [settle 10-13], +0.43% d/d, backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.88 from 0.84, 3:2:1 crack 65.94 (+1.39, 92nd pct) | key level: 95.53 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 87.82 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 105.69 [settle 10-09], +1.84% d/d, 95th pct of 20D range; WTI-Brent spread -12.91 (0th pct) — the Brent premium alone does not establish a tighter Brent calendar curve | key level: 105.73 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 103.05 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Natural Gas (NG) — Neutral | driver: settle 3.283 [settle 10-13], +3.66% d/d, managed money net -144,537 (-11,738 w/w) as price rose 3.42% (divergence) | key level: 3.2167 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 3.1047 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Soybeans (ZS) — Neutral | driver: settle 1277.25 [settle 10-13], -0.31% d/d, managed money net 29th pct, 20D range 1269.75-1332.25 | key level: 1293.17 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 1280.17 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot
| Contract | Final settle 10-13 | 1D (settle) | 5D (settle) | Asia 10-14 08:00 BJT | vs settle |
|---|
| Gold | 4107.9 | -0.32% | -0.23% | 4177.7 | +0.01% |
| Silver | 59.525 | -1.63% | -3.35% | 59.181 | -0.58% |
| WTI Crude | 95.09 | +0.43% | +5.25% | 94.76 | +0.66% |
| Brent Crude | 105.69 (10-12) | +1.84% | +6.31% | 106.32 | -0.31% |
| Natural Gas | 3.283 | +3.66% | +5.43% | n/a | n/a |
| Copper | 6.726 | -0.31% | +1.15% | 6.7185 | -0.11% |
| Soybeans | 1277.25 | -0.31% | -1.48% | n/a | n/a |
| Corn | 482.75 | -0.05% | -4.97% | n/a | n/a |
| Wheat | 673.50 | -0.45% | -4.97% | n/a | n/a |
_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-13 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = report-date intraday observation from the supplied snapshot, not a settlement or a guaranteed 08:00 cutoff; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._
Cross-market spreads & ratios
| Spread / ratio | Formula | Now (settle mm-dd) | Prior close | Day change | 1Y pct | Reading |
|---|
| WTI–Brent spread | CL − BZ | -12.91 (10-12) | -12.87 | -0.04 | 0% | negative = Brent premium over WTI |
| Gold/Silver ratio | GC ÷ SI | 70.18 (10-13) | 69.25 | +0.93 | 83% | high/rising = silver lagging gold |
| Copper/Gold ratio | HG ÷ GC × 1000 | 1.61 (10-13) | 1.61 | +0.00 | 100% | high/rising = pro-growth / risk-on |
| Gold/oil ratio (bbl/oz) | GC ÷ CL | 44.4 (10-13) | 44.7 | -0.3 | 2% | barrels of WTI one troy ounce of gold buys |
| 3:2:1 crack spread | (2×RB + HO) × 42 ÷ 3 − CL | 65.94 (10-13) | 64.55 | +1.39 | 92% | refiner margin per bbl of crude |
_Computed from the same final settles as the table above; every leg of a row shares one settlement date (shown in brackets), otherwise the row is omitted. Prior close = previous common settlement date. 1Y pct = percentile over the last 252 sessions, same convention as the percentile table._
Gold (GC) Asia last 4177.7 (+0.01% vs settle 4107.9) — flat, range-bound. Silver (SI) Asia 59.181 (-0.58%) — lagging. WTI (CL) Asia 94.76 (+0.66%) — bid. Brent (BZ) Asia 106.32 (-0.31% vs settle 105.69) — softer. Nat Gas (NG) Asia 1474.45 (+3.16% vs settle 1429.25) — strong bid. Copper (HG) Asia 6.7185 (-0.11%) — flat.
| Spread / ratio | Now (settle) | Prior close | Day change | 1Y pct |
|---|
| WTI-Brent spread | -12.91 (10-12) | -12.87 | -0.04 | 0% |
| Gold/Silver ratio | 70.18 (10-13) | 69.25 | +0.93 | 83% |
| Copper/Gold ratio | 1.61 (10-13) | 1.61 | +0 | 100% |
| Gold/oil ratio | 44.4 (10-13) | 44.7 | -0.3 | 2% |
| 3:2:1 crack spread | 65.94 (10-13) | 64.55 | +1.39 | 92% |
5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard
The system carried one live idea into this report; no prior calls were open. The single idea was not filled, so no MFE, MAE, or realized P&L exists to report.
- Stats (system-computed, quote as-is, no commentary): 1 idea · limit fill 0/1 (0%) · avg MFE n/a · avg MAE n/a · avg realized n/a
- No other calls were carried forward from the prior issue; the scorecard reflects a single live idea with zero realized or unrealized P&L to report.
6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol
Curve: WTI backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.88 (+0.04 d/d), confirming prompt tightness. Brent M1-M2 at 3.45 narrowed slightly (-0.02). Nat Gas contango M1-M2 widened to -0.339 (-0.013). Copper remains in contango at -0.0305 (unchanged). Silver contango narrowed to -0.227 (+0.006).
Inventories: LME copper stock 231,275 MT (-1,750 MT d/d, -13,625 5-report); COMEX copper registered 470,200 short tons (-5,700 d/d, as of 10-09). LME aluminum 238,625 MT (-250 d/d); SHFE aluminum warrant 95,305 MT (-4,987 d/d). COMEX gold registered 15.07 Moz (unchanged d/d, as of 10-09). COMEX silver registered 102.76 Moz (-0.05 Moz, as of 10-09).
Positioning: CFTC (as of 10-06) shows managed money net length cut across the board as prices rose — gold -9,331 w/w (price +0.18%), copper -16,924 w/w (price +0.7%), natural gas -11,738 w/w (price +3.42%), silver -86 w/w (price +0.71%), crude -25,994 w/w (price +0.07%). All five tagged as divergences: price up while funds cut length, signaling weak sponsorship.
Vol: WTI IV (OVX 48.52) vs RV20 35% → IV-RV +13.5 vol pts (event premium elevated). Gold IV (GVZ 22.48) vs RV20 17.5% → +5.0 vol pts. Silver IV (VXSLV 36.33) vs RV20 29.2% → +7.1 vol pts. VIX at 15.27 (16th pct) — equity vol is cheap.
7. Week Ahead Calendar
- BJT 10-14 09:30 | ET 10-13 21:30 — China CPI y/y (F:1.0%, P:0.8%) — HG, CL, ZS — surprise if outside F±0.2%.
- BJT 10-14 09:30 | ET 10-13 21:30 — China PPI y/y (F:4.4%, P:3.8%) — HG, CL, ZS — surprise if outside F±0.6%.
- BJT 10-14 10:03-11:04 | ET 10-13 22:03-23:04 — China Trade Balance (F:790B) and USD-denominated Trade Balance (F:116.8B) — HG, CL, ZS — surprise if outside F±19B / ±2.3B.
- BJT 10-14 16:03 | ET 10-14 04:03 — China M2 y/y (F:7.4%, P:7.5%) and New Loans (F:1025B, P:60B) — HG, CL, ZS — surprise if outside F±0.1% / ±965B.
- BJT 10-14 20:30 | ET 10-14 08:30 — US Core CPI m/m (F:0.2%), Core CPI y/y (F:2.5%), CPI m/m (F:0.6%), CPI y/y (F:3.6%) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside F±0.1-0.2%.
- BJT 10-15 20:30 | ET 10-15 08:30 — US Core PPI m/m (F:0.3%), Core Retail Sales m/m (F:0.6%), PPI m/m (F:0.6%), Retail Sales m/m (F:0.3%) — GC, SI, DXY — surprise if outside F±0.1-0.9%.
8. Risk Factors
- US CPI (BJT 10-14 20:30) hotter than F:3.6% y/y → dollar strength, gold break below 4165.03 (S1). The GC/SI divergence (price up, managed money cutting net length) leaves gold exposed to a hawkish surprise with no fund bid underneath.
- Silver divergence deepens: price below 60.024 (S1) confirms bearish continuation; COMEX registered stocks at 102.76 Moz (-0.05 Moz) offer no supply-side offset, and the gold/silver ratio at 70.18 (83% of 1Y range) shows silver lagging gold on every upswing.
- Nat Gas contango widening (-0.339 M1-M2) with managed money still net short -144,537 → downside risk if storage data disappoints; the divergence (price up 3.42% while funds cut net length) mirrors the gold and silver pattern, suggesting the rally lacks institutional sponsorship.
- This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.
No trade setups were approved for publication today.