1. Executive Summary: Three Things That Matter
1. Gold (GC) settled 4107.9 [settle 10-14], -1.66% d/d, -6.37% over 20 sessions — the largest 20D drawdown among the precious metals. Managed money net length fell 9,331 w/w to 110,987 while price rose 0.18% over the CFTC window (divergence: price up, funds cutting), crowding at the 91st percentile. In Asia the metal is +0.54% to 4129.97. Watch the 10-15 20:30 BJT Core PPI and Retail Sales prints and the 10-16 Warsh speech for the next directional catalyst.
2. WTI (CL) settled 95.09 [settle 10-14], +1.01% d/d, +7.71% over 5 sessions — backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.97 from 0.88, the 3:2:1 crack sits at 65.16 (91st percentile), and managed money net length is at the 14.63 crowding percentile (not crowded). Asia is flat at 95.02. The energy complex carries the strongest trend and the cleanest structure.
3. Silver (SI) settled 55.877 [settle 10-14], -6.13% d/d, -13.93% over 20 sessions — the worst performer in the complex. Copper (HG) settled 6.6605, -0.97% d/d, with SHFE warrants jumping +14,050 MT (+149.36%) d/d. Both show price-up/funds-cutting divergences that remain unresolved, and both are pressing toward the lower end of their 20D ranges.
2. Best Trade Today
No trade met the publication standard today (stop distance and reward-to-risk checks). Standing aside.
3. Instrument Views & What Changed
- Gold (GC) — Neutral | driver: settle 4107.9 [settle 10-14], -1.66% d/d, managed money net 110,987 (-9,331 w/w) as price rose 0.18% (divergence: price up, funds cutting), crowding 91st pct | key level: 4169.27 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 4070.77 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Silver (SI) — Neutral | driver: settle 55.877 [settle 10-14], -6.13% d/d, COMEX registered stocks 103.35 Moz (+0.59 Moz as of 10-12), managed money net 7,528 (-86 w/w) as price rose 0.71% (divergence) | key level: 58.461 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 54.426 (S1) | vs last issue: changed from Neutral to Bearish because the -6.13% settle broke below the prior S1 and the 20D range collapsed.
- WTI (CL) — Bullish | driver: settle 95.09 [settle 10-14], +1.01% d/d, backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.97 from 0.88, 3:2:1 crack 65.16 (-0.78, 91st pct) | key level: 96.110 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 87.82 (S2) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Brent (BZ) — Bullish | driver: settle 106.06 [settle 10-13], +1.84% d/d, 95th pct of 20D range; WTI-Brent spread -11.55 (2nd pct) — the Brent premium alone does not establish a tighter Brent calendar curve | key level: 108.52 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 103.57 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Natural Gas (NG) — Neutral | driver: settle 3.198 [settle 10-14], -2.59% d/d, managed money net -144,537 (-11,738 w/w) as price rose 3.42% (divergence) | key level: 3.3023 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 3.1253 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Copper (HG) — Neutral | driver: settle 6.6605 [settle 10-14], -0.97% d/d, SHFE warrants +14,050 MT (+149.36%) d/d, managed money net 61,134 (-16,924 w/w) as price rose 0.7% (divergence) | key level: 6.7667 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 6.5767 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
- Soybeans (ZS) — Neutral | driver: settle 1277.25 [settle 10-14], -0.51% d/d, managed money net 12th pct, 20D range 1269.75-1331.75 | key level: 1289.08 (R1) | invalidation: settle below 1269.83 (S1) | vs last issue: unchanged.
4. Settle vs Asia Snapshot
| Contract | Final settle 10-14 | 1D (settle) | 5D (settle) | Asia 10-15 07:00 BJT | vs settle |
|---|
| Gold | 4107.9 | -1.66% | -0.79% | 4129.97 | +0.54% |
| Silver | 55.877 | -6.13% | -7.33% | 55.813 | -0.11% |
| WTI Crude | 95.09 | +1.01% | +7.71% | 95.02 | -0.07% |
| Brent Crude | 106.06 (10-13) | -0.90% | +5.08% | 105.87 | +0.17% |
| Natural Gas | 3.198 | -2.59% | -0.16% | n/a | n/a |
| Copper | 6.6605 | -0.97% | +0.17% | 6.6168 | -0.66% |
| Soybeans | 1277.25 | -0.51% | -1.56% | n/a | n/a |
| Corn | 480.75 | -0.41% | -4.23% | n/a | n/a |
| Wheat | 673.25 | +0.60% | -1.93% | n/a | n/a |
_Settle = each exchange's final daily settlement for 2026-10-14 (CME Group / ICE / LME; settlement times differ by product). 1D/5D are settle-to-settle. Asia = report-date intraday observation from the supplied snapshot, not a settlement or a guaranteed 08:00 cutoff; “n/a” = that contract had no Asia print. A dated settle in brackets means that contract has no newer final settlement._
Cross-market spreads & ratios
| Spread / ratio | Formula | Now (settle mm-dd) | Prior close | Day change | 1Y pct | Reading |
|---|
| WTI–Brent spread | CL − BZ | -11.55 (10-13) | -12.91 | +1.36 | 2% | negative = Brent premium over WTI |
| Gold/Silver ratio | GC ÷ SI | 73.52 (10-14) | 70.18 | +3.34 | 87% | high/rising = silver lagging gold |
| Copper/Gold ratio | HG ÷ GC × 1000 | 1.62 (10-14) | 1.61 | +0.01 | 100% | high/rising = pro-growth / risk-on |
| Oil/gold ratio (oz/bbl) | CL ÷ GC | 0.0231 (10-14) | 0.0225 | +0.0006 | 97% | ounces of gold one barrel of crude buys |
| 3:2:1 crack spread | (2×RB + HO) × 42 ÷ 3 − CL | 65.16 (10-14) | 65.94 | -0.78 | 91% | refiner margin per bbl of crude |
_Computed from the same final settles as the table above; every leg of a row shares one settlement date (shown in brackets), otherwise the row is omitted. Prior close = previous common settlement date. 1Y pct = percentile over the last 252 sessions, same convention as the percentile table._
| Instrument | Settle (10-14) | Asia (10-15 07:00) | Change (Asia) |
|---|
| GC=F Gold | 4107.9 | 4129.97 | +0.54% |
| SI=F Silver | 55.877 | 55.813 | -0.11% |
| CL=F WTI | 95.09 | 95.02 | -0.07% |
| BZ=F Brent | 106.06 | 105.87 | +0.17% |
| NG=F Nat Gas | 3.198 | — | — |
| HG=F Copper | 6.6605 | 6.6168 | -0.66% |
| ZS=F Soybeans | 1277.25 | — | — |
Gold is leading the Asia rebound (+0.54%) after the prior session's -1.66% settle decline, while copper is the weakest (-0.66%). Brent is marginally higher (+0.17%) and WTI is flat. The cross-market spreads table shows WTI-Brent at -11.55 (2nd percentile), gold/silver at 73.52 (87th pct), copper/gold at 1.62 (100th pct), oil/gold at 0.0231 (97th pct), and 3:2:1 crack at 65.16 (91st pct).
5. Yesterday's Calls Scorecard
- HG=F LONG entry 6.5623 stop 6.4327 target 6.7708 (1-5d, conv 6) → PENDING (entry not yet touched) | last settle 6.6605 | thesis: Copper settled 6.692 with LME warehouse stock down 2,200 MT d/d and the copper/gold ratio
- Stats (system-computed): 1 ideas · limit fill 0/1 (0%) · avg MFE n/a · avg MAE n/a · avg realized n/a
6. Futures Structure: Curve, Inventories, Positioning & Vol
Curve: WTI backwardation M1-M2 widened to 0.97 (from 0.88, Δ+0.09), confirming prompt tightness. Brent M1-M2 narrowed to 2.78 from 3.45 (Δ-0.67). Gasoline (RB) backwardation narrowed slightly to 0.1163. Heating oil (HO) backwardation widened to 0.1578. Copper remains in contango at -0.0315. Gold contango narrowed to -18.9. Silver contango narrowed to -0.222. Natural gas contango narrowed to -0.319.
Inventories: COMEX copper registered rose +1,100 short tons d/d to 471,300 (as of 10-12). LME copper stock fell -1,625 MT d/d to 229,650 (as of 10-13). SHFE copper warrants surged +14,050 MT (+149.36%) d/d to 23,457 (as of 10-14) — a sharp domestic build. LME aluminum flat at 238,625 MT; SHFE aluminum -2,385 MT (-2.5%). COMEX gold registered -0.02 Moz to 15.05 Moz. COMEX silver registered +0.59 Moz to 103.35 Moz. LME zinc +5,550 MT (+4.18%) d/d.
Positioning: CFTC as of 10-06 shows managed money net length cut across the board: gold -9,331 to 110,987 (price +0.18%, divergence), silver -86 to 7,528 (price +0.71%, divergence), copper -16,924 to 61,134 (price +0.7%, divergence), natural gas -11,738 to -144,537 (price +3.42%, divergence), crude oil -25,994 to 53,598 (price +0.07%, aligned). Gold crowding at 91st percentile; crude at only 14.63 percentile.
Vol: WTI IV (OVX 48.77) vs RV20 33.5% → IV-RV +15.3 vol pts (event premium rich). Gold IV (GVZ 22.09) vs RV20 17.4% → +4.7 vol pts. Silver IV (VXSLV 36.33) vs RV20 35.1% → +1.2 vol pts (near parity). VIX at 16.87 (46th percentile). Optionality is cheapest in silver where IV≈RV.
7. Week Ahead Calendar
- BJT 10-15 20:30 | ET 10-15 08:30 — Core PPI m/m F:0.3% P:0.2% surprise if outside F±0.1% → GC, SI, DXY
- BJT 10-15 20:30 | ET 10-15 08:30 — Core Retail Sales m/m F:0.6% P:1.4% surprise if outside F±0.8% → GC, SI, DXY
- BJT 10-15 20:30 | ET 10-15 08:30 — PPI m/m F:0.6% P:0.4% surprise if outside F±0.2% → GC, SI, DXY
- BJT 10-15 20:30 | ET 10-15 08:30 — Retail Sales m/m F:0.3% P:1.2% surprise if outside F±0.9% → GC, SI, DXY
- BJT 10-16 11:30 | ET 10-15 23:30 — Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks F:- P:- → GC, SI, DXY
- BJT 10-19 10:00 | ET 10-18 22:00 — Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y F:- P:- → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-19 10:00 | ET 10-18 22:00 — Industrial Production y/y F:- P:- → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-19 10:00 | ET 10-18 22:00 — Retail Sales y/y F:- P:- → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-19 10:00 | ET 10-18 22:00 — Services Production Index y/y F:- P:- → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-20 09:15 | ET 10-19 21:15 — 1-y Loan Prime Rate F:- P:3% → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-20 09:15 | ET 10-19 21:15 — 5-y Loan Prime Rate F:- P:3.5% → HG, CL, ZS
- BJT 10-20 09:30 | ET 10-19 21:30 — GDP y/y F:- P:- → HG, CL, ZS
8. Risk Factors
- Core PPI / Retail Sales surprise (10-15 20:30 BJT): A print outside F±0.1% (Core PPI) or F±0.9% (Retail Sales) could trigger a dollar spike, pressuring GC, SI, and CL simultaneously. Trigger level: DXY above 102.95 (20D high).
- Fed Warsh speech (10-16 11:30 BJT): Hawkish rhetoric on rate hikes would lift real yields and pressure gold; the 10Y yield is at 5.244 (stale, 10-09 settle) with the 2Y10Y spread at 0.37. Trigger: ^TNX direction shift.
- SHFE copper warrant surge: The +149.36% d/d build in SHFE copper warrants (23,457 MT as of 10-14) signals domestic supply pressure that could cap HG upside despite the LME draw. Trigger: HG settle below 6.5767 (S1).
- Silver breakdown risk: SI settled at 55.877, near the 20D low of 55.56, with RV20 at 35.1% and IV≈RV. A break below 55.56 could accelerate selling. Trigger: settle below 55.56.
- WTI range top: CL is pressing against the 20D high at 98.01; a rejection there with the 3:2:1 crack rolling over from 91st percentile would invalidate the bullish structure. Trigger: settle below 92.19 (S1).
This report is generated automatically from public quantitative and macro data for research and market tracking only. It does not constitute any investment advice.
No trade setups were approved for publication today.